#NEXT FED MEETING 2022 SERIES#

The Fed obviously has not seen that data yet, and remains cautious because it doesn’t want to take unnecessary risks on inflation running ahead of target for longer than necessary. There is an implied expectation from both fixed income markets and inflation expectation surveys that the inflation numbers will become more reassuring over the coming months. However, despite the worrying headlines, fixed income markets may be guardedly optimistic on inflation. That may provide a bit of air cover for the Fed to ease off on rate hikes in 2023.

#NEXT FED MEETING 2022 SERIES#

If these figures drop out of the inflation 12-month series in late 2022 and early 2023, and are replaced by lower month-on-month totals, the overall annual inflation number may also fall fairly sharply. The potentially good news is that the final quarter of 2021 did see some very high U.S. Still all of these are far above the Fed’s 2% goal.

In contrast, PPI inflation is closer to 9% today, and PCE inflation is at 6% given differences in what is being measured. Today we have annual topline CPI inflation broadly at 8% and around 6% once you strip out more volatile prices or use other statistical techniques to get to underlying inflation rates. The Fed has been clear that these price trends, especially from the August CPI data released in September, still imply U.S.

Next fed meeting 2022